• Strategy | Jul 9, 2015, 12:07 PM

    Bullish SPX Trading Strategies

    Bullish SPX Trading Strategies

    SPX was trading at 2068.76 on July 6th. There were 47 days until the August 21st expiration. You believe that there will be a 3% upward move in the S&P between now and then. That would mean a move up to 2130. There are a number of different bullish strategies that would benefit from a bullish move. One trade could be the purchase of 10 SPX August 2100 calls at 23.20. The upside breakeven point is 2123.20. The maximum possible profit is unlimited. The maximum possible loss is $23,200[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2015, 9:55 PM

    Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral Trades from Today

    Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral Trades from Today

    One of the fun parts of working at the Options Institute is looking into how large traders react to different market environments. Since today was a pretty exciting day in the markets I decided to look at block trading activity from the end of the day today. The result is a bullish, bearish, and neutral trade executed respectively in the Russell 2000, S&P 500, and VIX option markets today. First, the bullish Russell 2000 trade. With RUT very close to 1228 there was a bullish diagonal spread executed[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 7, 2015, 12:15 PM

    Weekly MSCI Index Review - 7/7/2015

    Weekly MSCI Index Review - 7/7/2015

    Tuesday of each week is the time we have set aside to discuss international markets on the CBOE Options Hub. Recently CBOE launched index option trading on two of the most widely followed equity market indexes that depict performance for equity markets outside the United States. The MSCI EAFE Index (MXEA) measures the performance of equities in developed markets outside of North America and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) focuses on emerging markets such as China, South Korea, and India. The[...]

  • Market News | Jul 6, 2015, 8:25 AM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup - Holiday Week Edition

    The Weekly Options News Roundup - Holiday Week Edition

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast and online and social media outlets. Watch VIX and TYVIX as Uncertainty in Europe Grows Greece’s debt crisis has Jon Najarian keeping an eye on two key volatility indexes. The VIX Index, a measure of the S&P 500 and the TYVIX Index, a measure 10-year Treasury Notes, can both be used to monitor volatility as a potential exit of Greece from the[...]

  • Strategy | Jul 1, 2015, 11:47 AM

    Monday’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward

    Monday’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward

    One of the top posts of 2013 was All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data), in which I sliced and diced the twenty largest one-day VIX spikes in the history of the VIX. Nineteen of those spikes were in excess of 30% and with all-time #5 arriving later in 2013 and all-time #15 and #16 following in 2014, I was compelled to comment that despite the seemingly low VIX and concerns about complacency, 2014 Had Third Highest Number of 20% VIX Spikes. Fast forward to the present and[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Jun 29, 2015, 5:52 PM

    Today in VIX, SPX, and RUT - 6/29/2015

    Today in VIX, SPX, and RUT - 6/29/2015

    A lot went on today as the Greece thing seemed to come to a head. Below are some highlights with respect to the CBOE Volatility Index, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 with respect to the reaction of global markets to the news out of Greece. Spot VIX rose just over 34% and the front month July futures contract was up almost 20%. Volume in VIX futures appears to have topped 400,000 for the first time this year. July and August settled within a tick of each other which is a positive for the long[...]

  • Market News | Jun 29, 2015, 10:13 AM

    Chart Risks - Weekly Market Outlook

    Chart Risks - Weekly Market Outlook

    Last week's strong start for the market faded rather quickly once it became clear Greece wasn't simply going to be offered a bailout package just because it wanted one. In fact, by the time all was said and done, stocks actually lost ground last week, not to mention ended the week in near-bearish mode.  News out of Greece will likely cause some continued market swings, in both directions, until it is more officially resolved. News out of Greece will likely cause some continued market swings, in both directions, until it[...]

  • Market News | Jun 26, 2015, 5:53 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 6/26/15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 6/26/15

    The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) continues to trade in a fairly tight range, which is beginning to frustrate just about everyone. There is support at 2070, and the 2130-2135 area is now strong resistance. As a result, the $SPX chart is neutral. Equity-only put-call ratios are about as noncommital as I can remember. Both are drifting sideways, meaning they're not really on a strong trend of any kind. The market breadth oscillators are also split in their[...]

  • Market News | Jun 15, 2015, 10:01 AM

    Where We Stand Now - Weekly Market Outlook 6.15.15

    Where We Stand Now - Weekly Market Outlook 6.15.15

    Despite Wednesday's heroically bullish day, Monday's and Friday's tumbles were enough to translate into about a breakeven for last week... against a (mostly) bearish backdrop. That is, although the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) made a very modest gain last week, it made even bigger losses in each of the prior two weeks, and is still knocking on the door of some very critical support levels. We'll have a detailed discussion of those support lines below, after a close examination of last week's and this[...]

  • Market News | Jun 12, 2015, 12:55 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary: Market Remains Mired in its Trading Range 6/12/15

    Weekly Market Commentary: Market Remains Mired in its Trading Range 6/12/15

    Despite some indications this week that the market might break down, it did not do so. In fact, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) held near the previous support level of 2070, thereby strengthening that level as market support. On the upside, there is resistance at the old highs of 2135, so $SPX remains locked in the 2070-2135 trading range. Equity-only put-call ratios are split in their signals at the current time. The standard ratio is declining, and is thus on a buy signal. Conversely,[...]

  • So Far VIX in 2015 Tells a Different Story Than 2014

    So Far VIX in 2015 Tells a Different Story Than 2014

    Over the weekend I was asked to take a look at the first five months of 2015 with respect to the volatility markets. Since volatility indexes need to be looked at in relation to recent history I decided to compare VIX in the first five months of 2015 to VIX last year. Before getting to that comparison, keep in mind the stock market action in early 2014 was very similar to that during the first five months of this year.   In 2014 the S&P 500 was up 4.07% while this year the S&P 500[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Jun 1, 2015, 1:55 PM

    Halfway To A Textbook Recession - Weekly Market Outlook

    Halfway To A Textbook Recession - Weekly Market Outlook

    After three straight weeks of bullish progress, the weight of those gains finally proved to be too much. The prod was a surprisingly weak revised reading on Q1's GDP growth. Rather than growing at a 0.2% clip as first thought, the second (of three) updates on the nation's overall economic activity rolled in at -0.7%. That was enough to send the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) down 0.63% on Friday, bringing the weekly loss to 0.87%. And yet, the market has yet to move past the point of no return and start[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 29, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    $SPX remains stalled just below the all-time highs, which are at 2135. The support at 2070 (the lows of March and April) remains in place. Equity-only put-call ratios are technically still on sell signals. But have been drifting sideways for a couple of weeks. Market breadth oscillators gave sell signals prior to Tuesday's market decline. They remain on those sell signals, despite the broad market's attempt to recover. Volatility indices and derivatives are still quite bullish. Yes, they spiked[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 26, 2015, 9:45 AM

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    It wasn't a pretty or a convincing bullish move, but stocks did make forward progress last week, putting some distance between them and a huge hurdle that had otherwise been holding it back since February. Still, no later than it cleared that ceiling another possible one developed. We'll take a closer look at this new market situation, right after we review last week's and this week's economic numbers. Economic Data It may not have been a terribly busy week last week on the economic front, but it[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 23, 2015, 12:22 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Everything is grinding to a halt in this market, and that is probably a sign that an explosive move lies in the not-too-distant future. $SPX has support at the old highs (2120). If that should fail, there should be a good support level at 2070.   Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts.  However, it is obvious that these ratios have just been trending sideways for the past few days. Market breadth has been something[...]

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