Danger, I’ve Been Told to Expect It
By most (short-dated) measures, SPX historical volatility is quite low. The SPX 10- and 30-day historical vol measures are 6% and 7.4%, respectively. The only other recent corollaries in terms of market calm are May 2, 2019 (SPX 30-day 7.4%) and October 9, 2018 (SPX 30-day 6.1%).
In both recent instances, there was a fairly significant pullback that followed.
On May 1, 2019, the SPX made another new all-time high. Between the highs on May 1 and the intraday[...]