Cboe Blogs

It wasn't a pretty or a convincing bullish move, but stocks did make forward progress last week, putting some distance between them and a huge hurdle that had otherwise been holding it back since February. Still, no later than it cleared that ceiling another possible one developed. We'll take a closer look at this new market situation, right after we review last week's and this week's economic numbers. Economic Data It may not have been a terribly busy week last week on the economic front, but it[...]

Everything is grinding to a halt in this market, and that is probably a sign that an explosive move lies in the not-too-distant future. $SPX has support at the old highs (2120). If that should fail, there should be a good support level at 2070.   Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts.  However, it is obvious that these ratios have just been trending sideways for the past few days. Market breadth has been something[...]

Editors Note: We would like to welcome back Joe Cusick as a contributor to the CBOE Option Hub.  Joe is Vice President of Wealth and Asset Management at MoneyBlock.  He is a terrific person and his contributions have been very well received.  Welcome back Joe! How many times did you hear last week that the Dow Industrial's hit a 3-month high or that the S&P 500 set a new record close? Sounds like the sky is the limit, but is it? I often discuss how lagging markets or sectors tend[...]

The S&P 500 Index ended last week at a new high, and the technical trend momentum picture is bullish.  But we've seen similar moves since February reverse several times, as the market has remained in a choppy and grinding narrowing range (with a mild upside bias). The $64,000 question: Do we trust the move we just got by taking it at face value, or is this another potential fakeout? We'll weigh the odds below, after taking a detailed look at some of last week's and this week's[...]

On Thursday, May 14, the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUTSM) closed at 1503.46, its highest all-time daily close.  PUT is an award-winning benchmark index that measures the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that sells S&P 500® Index (SPX) put options against collateralized cash reserves held in a money market account.  The daily historical data for the PUT Index extends back to June 30, 1986. Since mid-1986 the PUT Index has had higher returns and lower volatility than[...]

The broad stock market has continued to frustrate both bulls and bears by remaining within a trading range for quite some time.  However, today, $SPX closed at a new all-time high and thus is on the verge of an upside breakout.  While this produced much glee on CNBC, there could be problems once again if this breakout is not confirmed. The simplest confirmation would be another $SPX close at new all-time highs, and this time above the all-time intra-day high at 2125.92. Equity-only put-call[...]

There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know that condition is rather arbitrary.  Maybe she commented with a 'wink' to the markets.  The valuation[...]

You have to give credit to the bulls - they're not going down without a fight. In fact, last week's market rebound right from the brink of disaster was another impressive comeback. On the other hand, as impressive as Friday's bounce was, stocks still aren't over the big hurdle that's been holding them back since February.  Will this be the time we break through past the recent choppiness and trend higher? We'll draw that line in the sand after recapping last week's big economic news[...]

Small cap stocks played a little catch up last week with the Russell 2000 rising 0.55% while the Russell 1000 gained 0.35%.   Like all broad based market indexes in the US last, the positive performance came from the market’s reaction to Friday’s employment report. Large cap stocks actually ruled the day on Friday with the benchmark Russell 1000 gaining 1.2% while the Russell 2000 rose by about 0.75%. For a perspective on the relative performance of large and small cap stocks[...]

The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals.  But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.   So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals. Market breadth was the[...]

Despite the strong bullish effort on Friday, stock's booked a loss for the past week. On the other hand, the market finished the week on a bullish foot, which broadly suggests we'll hit the ground running in an upward direction this week. (It doesn't hurt the bullish case that the longer-term trend is still technically intact.)  We'll weigh the odds below, after looking at last week's big economic news and previewing some of this week's economic data. Economic Data While we got a large number[...]

Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) hit a new record high last week and the close of 2117.69 was the highest close we've ever seen from the index -- and the NASDAQ Composite's (COMP) (QQQ) close of 5092.08 was above the recent ceiling around 5044.  The overall technical analysis picture is bullish for stocks.   But, we can't ignore the fact that there have been multiple bullish runs over the past 6 months that looked on the verge of a clear upside breakout only to reverse[...]

Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances. In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way. Equity-only put-call ratios have been bullish since around the first of the month. But this week, they began to curl upwards -- a move which[...]

On Tuesday April 21 CBOE launched its first-ever trading in cash-settled options on two MSCI indexes – the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) and the MSCI EAFE Index (MXEA). Options on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI EAFE Index are designed to enable investors to efficiently hedge and manage their non-U.S. equity portfolio exposures, to diversify their portfolios, or to generate added income. $TRILLIONS IN ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT In mid-2014 the combined assets under management[...]