• Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Aug 6, 2016, 10:06 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/1 - 8/5

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/1 - 8/5

    Last night we were (somewhat) entertained by the opening ceremonies for the Summer Olympics and for the next 17 days will be subjected to story enhanced competitions.  I have been monitoring a competitive struggle already this year.  The battle between small cap and large cap stocks.  It has been like a marathon with the Russell 2000 (RUT) falling way back, but pacing itself relative to the Russell 1000 (RUI).  RUI had quite a lead after the first six weeks or so of 2016. [...]

  • Maury Meets Mark

    Maury Meets Mark

    In the lively chat rooms of Hamzei Analytics, Maury tales are abound.  Saying Maury (a fictitious character) is frugal, is an understatement.  His motto is “What’s for free, is for me”.  At the very least, he hates wholesale prices and want to buy below cost, thus negotiates for the best bargain. He has set the standard for getting the most out of our options trades. We have come to appreciate the “Maury” trades in the HFT Options Trading Chatroom. Old[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Trade Ideas | Aug 3, 2016, 11:25 AM

    CBOE Options Institute Class to Focus on VIX and Volatility

    CBOE Options Institute Class to Focus on VIX and Volatility

    The CBOE Options Institute is hosting the first in a series of classes that will focus on different aspects of option and volatility trading. The first class, appropriately named Focus on VIX and Volatility Products, will be held on Friday August 19th at CBOE. For those unable to make it to Chicago the class is also available online. Specific topics to be covered include VIX and the behavior of volatility indexes VIX futures and options price behavior Trading VIX related Exchange Traded Products Long,[...]

  • Trader Talk | Aug 3, 2016, 9:45 AM

    Agenda for Fifth Annual CBOE RMC Europe on 26 – 28 September

    Agenda for Fifth Annual CBOE RMC Europe on 26 – 28 September

      The agenda for the Fifth Annual CBOE RMC Europe is available at http://www.cboermceurope.com/. The conference will be held Monday through Wednesday, September 26 - 28, 2016, at the Powerscourt Hotel<http://www.cboermceurope.com/hotel--travel.html>, County Wicklow, Ireland. 33 SPEAKERS Jim VandeHei<http://www.cboermceurope.com/keynote-speaker.html>, Co-founder of POLITICO, will be a keynote speaker, delivering insights and predictions for the U.S. Presidential election. Here is[...]

  • Trader Talk | Education | Aug 1, 2016, 10:10 AM

    Pulling Yourself Out of a Trading Slump

    Pulling Yourself Out of a Trading Slump

    Trading the market is all about outcomes, and it’s no surprise that we are driven to win every single day. When you’re plugging along and banking some nice wins, all is right with the world. You feel great. You believe in your skills. Your mindset is in a healthy place. The psychology of trading is on your side. We have all been in a trading slump, sometimes thinking that trading each day is a nightmare that will never end.  I've been there, recently in fact.  It was at a certain[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 31, 2016, 7:56 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/25 - 7/29

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/25 - 7/29

    It was as quiet a week as I can remember with respect to the S&P 500 focused volatility indexes.  An quieter and the lines below would look like a single line. The long ETPs really suffered last week as we entered the week in very steep contango when comparing VIX with the August and September futures.  Of course what is bad for VXX is good for XIV and SVXY which both rose over 9% and up over 30% on the year.  VVIX actually rose a tad last week as well as VIX option[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 28, 2016, 7:26 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 8/1 - 8/5

    Earnings Next Week - 8/1 - 8/5

    Next week is another huge week for earnings.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Trader Talk | Education | Jul 26, 2016, 2:30 AM

    Happy Birthday to Mick Jagger Who Told Us "Time is on our side"

    Happy Birthday to Mick Jagger Who Told Us "Time is on our side"

    Today is the 73rd birthday for Rolling Stones front man Sir Michael Philip ‘Mick’ Jagger.  His accomplishments would take up more space that I have available in this posting, but the statement, “one of the most dominant cultural figures of our time” about sums it up.  One of my favorite Rolling Stones songs is “Time Is on My Side” which I believe is a great statement with respect to potential success trading options.  I always think of that song[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 24, 2016, 6:12 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    VIX was the biggest mover among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes this past week.  VIX dropped more than 5% while VXST lost 0.39% and VXV was down 1.19%.  Longer dated volatility actually rose last week with VXMT gaining 0.28%.  The curve remains very steep which I’m taking as uncertainty abounding with respect to the balance of 2016, especial the fourth quarter of 2016. Most the data points on the table below are as one would expect after a relatively[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 24, 2016, 2:01 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    Last week the performance for the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) was as close as I’ve seen it since I’ve been doing these blogs.  RUI gained 0.67% and RUT was higher by 0.65% for what we will say is within the margin of error (I’m stealing from the political polls).  For the year RUT is maintaining a small lead on RUI up 6.78% versus 6.40%.  This is the second week in a row with RUT in the lead which is pretty impressive considering back in February RUT[...]

  • Trader Talk | Jul 21, 2016, 4:26 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 7/25 - 7/29

    Earnings Next Week - 7/25 - 7/29

    Next week is the heaviest earnings week with respect to stocks with Weeklys that I can recall.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Jul 21, 2016, 2:36 PM

    The Clean-Plate Club

    The Clean-Plate Club

    Little did I know how soon I'd be back to report on the status of the last line of my most recent post - specifically my declared hope/dream to be rid of the SVXY that became like a pebble in my shoe. Yesterday (July 20th), when VIX scraped low in the elevens and SPX scaled a steep hill, I starting thinking about and fearing a future that might not include SVXY prices more attractive than those I was seeing point-blank.  Biting the bullet and sweating through the pain, I sold all shares of[...]

  • Trader Talk | Education | Jul 20, 2016, 2:23 PM

    Analysis of an IBM Earnings Trade

    Analysis of an IBM Earnings Trade

    Students from CBOE classes often keep in close touch with us long after they have visited the Options Institute.  I heard from one OI alumnus on Monday who noticed that IBM was set to report earnings after the close. They also had taken a look at the stock price reaction to earnings over the last three years.  On average IBM has moved up or down about 4%, but the majority of those moves had been to the downside.  The thing that stood out for this former student was that the biggest[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 17, 2016, 12:00 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/11 - 7/15

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/11 - 7/15

    With VIX testing 2016 lows this past week the soon to be retired July future headed lower at a slightly faster rate than VIX dropping 6.43% versus 4.02%.  Even with the bigger loss on the week the July contract finished the week at more than a one premium to VIX.  We will see on Wednesday morning if the futures or the spot index win the tug of war into July settlement.  I would be remiss if I didn’t point out the steepness of the VIX curve from August to December.  VIX is[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2016, 12:00 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/11 - 7/15

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/11 - 7/15

    Short term volatility was the big loser among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes as VXST lost over 10% last week.  This was more than two times the drop in VIX and more than three times the drop in VXV and VXMT.  The result is a pretty darn steep curve indicating concerns about the second half of this year for the stock market are lurking around in option volatility. Despite the drop in VIX the VIX of VIX rose last week.  As I typed that I realized that two[...]