Trader Talk Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2016, 10:59 AM

    Gold - Where's the Risk?

    Gold - Where's the Risk?

    I’ve kept my eye off gold this year and boy have I missed a ride. The GLD ETF is up about 28% in 2016 which leaves most markets in the dust. Apparently #Gold is a trending topic today on Twitter as well. S0 even though the shiny metal is higher, is there any opportunity being anticipated for the rest of 2016? To get a feel for what the market thinks, I always consult option implied volatility. Luckily CBOE has the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) where I can get an idea if option[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 7, 2016, 4:37 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 7/11 - 7/15

    Earnings Next Week - 7/11 - 7/15

    Things start to get interesting as the early reporters give us results for the second quarter beginning next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 6, 2016, 2:02 PM

    Three Trades for #NationalFriedChickenDay

    Three Trades for #NationalFriedChickenDay

    Nothing gets the instructors at the Options Institute more excited than national holidays. Today’s event is National Fried Chicken Day which has us collectively getting together to determine how investors and traders can use the option market to trade America’s second favorite fried food. Peter Lusk suggested we take a look at Yum Brands (YUM) which owns his favorite fast food outlet Kentucky Fried Chicken or just KFC for the kids. Peter is often seen on the weekend heading home on his[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 5, 2016, 4:49 PM

    Profiting from the Side Dishes

    Profiting from the Side Dishes

    If it sounded like I had a little trick up my sleeve upon hastily closing my last post with a promise of quick and interesting updates, here's a confession:  Yes, one typing hand closed the post while the other was closing my TVIX short (see detail below). Crown jewel of June 21st, an otherwise lackluster day Everyone who lived through it will agree that nothing in particular happened on June 21st, but somehow I got a little shaken up inside and decided it was a good idea to close[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jul 3, 2016, 9:20 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/27 - 7/1

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/27 - 7/1

    The curve below is what happens when you have the biggest week over week drop for VIX on record. The 42% loss in VIX shattered the previous largest drop of 36.53% which occurred in the last week of 2012. Not so coincidentally both were weeks before a three-day weekend. Late Monday, with the July VIX Futures at 23.70 and spot VIX at 23.85 someone came in taking a long position in the VIX Jul 20th 22 Puts paying 2.75. The payoff at July settlement appears below, but by the end of the week[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 2, 2016, 7:42 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/27 - 7/1

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/27 - 7/1

    Small cap stocks, in the form of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) were up 2.51% last week, which was a nice rebound from the previous week’s reaction to Brexit vote. However, large cap stocks rebounded by a wider margin with the Russell 1000 (RUI) gaining 3.10%. Both benchmark indexes are higher for 2016 but RUI is had a 1.01% lead on RUT (2.85% vs. 1.84%). VIX experienced the biggest weekly drop on record losing just over 42%. The chart below is just as dramatic, but in the other[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Jun 30, 2016, 6:04 PM

    First Half of 2016 Confirms a Higher Volatility Regime

    First Half of 2016 Confirms a Higher Volatility Regime

    We are already half way done with 2016 and it appears what we thought going into the year is being confirmed by SPX implied volatility. If the Fall of 2015 there was lots of chatter about the equity markets in the US shifting from a low to a high volatility regime. The low volatility regime had been in place for several years and the first signal of a change came back in late August 2015 when VIX topped 50 intraday for the first time since the great financial crisis. I have two favorite charts[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Trade Ideas | Jun 28, 2016, 9:19 AM

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    Editors note - the following blog was put together by a team of interns from CBOE.  Nicholas Ghilardi will be a Junior at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign and is majoring in Engineering Physics with a minor in Mathematics. Gillian Hood will be Junior at Vanderbilt University and is majoring in Economics with minors in Corporate Strategy and Finance. Noah Silverman will be a Sophomore at Washington University in St. Louis and is majoring in Finance.  Last Thursday,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 6:30 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Both large and small cap stocks got hit on a week over week basis, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) holding up slightly better (-1.47%) than the Russell 1000 (RUI) which lost 1.62%. For the year both are down less than 1% with RUI holding a slight year to date performance edge of 0.40%. In the past when there is heightened concern regarding the global equity markets the RVX / VIX premium tends to drop to low level. That happened in early 2016 and that happened again Friday as the premium[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 2:41 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    On Thursday the world appeared to have dodged a bullet, but much like counting your chickens before the hatch, the market reacted a little too quickly and early to the assumed outcome of the EU referendum in Britain. The result was Friday which does not need to be rehashed here. The week over week changes for VIX and the standard monthly VIX futures appear below. Things we look more dramatic if I’d use the Thursday to Friday changes to construct the chart. Periodically I’ll[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 25, 2016, 1:12 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Global stocks took it on the chin Friday after the outcome for the vote in Britain determined that the majority of voters want to break from the European Union. Usually I show the week over week change for VXST, VIX, VXV, and VXMT to lead off this blog. Because the week over week change doesn’t tell the full story I included the closing prices from Thursday as well. The lowest line on the chart shows the closing levels for each of these S&P 500 oriented volatility indexes the day before[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Jun 24, 2016, 1:45 PM

    A Quick Thought on VIX Price Action Today

    A Quick Thought on VIX Price Action Today

    I’m in New York today and have been in contact with several different types of market participants. A common theme in the conversations I’ve had about today’s action was that VIX seemed too low relative to the panic going on in global equity markets. VIX in the low 20’s didn’t have the feel of a market panic equivalent to the S&P 500 losing over 3%. However, it is worth noting that VIX moved higher overnight, but has been hovering in a range most of the day. The[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 22, 2016, 1:53 PM

    Taking Apples from Somewhere Near the Top of the Tree

    Taking Apples from Somewhere Near the Top of the Tree

    The best way to tell a story (well, maybe not always) is to tell it in the order in which it happened. In this case, I'll start where I left off, and that means to describe the mystery position I took at the end of the last post. I made mention of it, but did not divulge it. It turns out I opened and closed that position all on the same day, so that by the time my last article went to press, it was already in the can. Here's the rundown for my June 3rd open/shut: Pictorial illustration of the entry[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Jun 20, 2016, 10:55 AM

    Jobs Report Shocks the Federal Reserve into Submission

    Jobs Report Shocks the Federal Reserve into Submission

    There is no doubt the Federal Reserve committee dialed it back significantly from the recent 'rate hike' rhetoric we have been hearing about lately.  It was only a month ago we heard most of the Fed Governors boldly claim a rate hike was coming and probably sooner than everyone believed. However, they presented a mixed picture of the economy, seeing some growth areas but weakness in others. This from their recent statement:  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 19, 2016, 10:48 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/13 - 6/17

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/13 - 6/17

    Despite global concerns dominating the market chatter last week, large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks. Both were lower as the Russell 1000 (RUI) lost 1.16% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up 1.65%. RUI widened the lead on RUT and is now up 1.33% for 2016 while RUT is still higher, but by only 0.78%. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) rose last week, but not nearly as much as the gains we saw from VIX. As global concerns entered the marketplace, the RVX[...]