• Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Sep 19, 2016, 9:35 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Fed Wednesday Looms

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Fed Wednesday Looms

    As much as the bulls tried last week, they could never get the market back above a key hurdle. The threat of a September rate hike just continued to circulate, and never gave the buyers a chance to get traction. Then again, the bears didn't make any progress either. They had several opportunities to deal a short-term death blow to the market, but could never get the job done. With the a key rate hike decision looming on Wednesday, odds are good traders aren't going to make any major push before then.[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 18, 2016, 2:53 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 9/12 - 9/16

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 9/12 - 9/16

    VIX gave up a little over 12% while the futures were lower, but not nearly to the extent that spot VIX lost value.  We are back to contango in the blink of an eye. VIX options and futures trade until 3:15 Chicago time each day.  Late Friday, after the official stock market closing time of 3:00, someone came in and did a pretty interesting trade in VIX.  The trade involved a purchase of 3,000 VIX Sep 21st 20 Calls at 0.19 each and then sold 10,000 VIX Sep 21st 23 Calls[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 18, 2016, 7:25 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/12 - 9/16

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/12 - 9/16

    After a lot of zigging and zagging VIX and the other S&P 500 related volatility indexes finished lower on a week over week basis.  The curve depicting the relationship among VXST, VIX, VXV, and VXMT even returned to a historically normally shape. I found VVIX remaining over 100 interesting despite last week's drop in VIX.  Also, the drop in TYVIX is noteworthy as it occurred in front of a week where we get a Fed decision. In the exchange traded product space the long funds[...]

  • VIX | Sep 17, 2016, 10:09 AM

    Back to VIX Specials

    Back to VIX Specials

    Summer didn't draw to a close without telling us it was doing so.  If any VIX-watchers were sleeping, they're awake now. Most of the summer seemed flat and long as a football field, and while that should've been easy, I made it difficult for myself by trying from July 19th onward to profit from something that simply wasn't happening just because I wished it and staked it out repeatedly:  The return of any kind of volatility or at least the end of the silent, somnolent, stubbornly-immobile[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Sep 12, 2016, 10:50 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Levels To Watch Here

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Levels To Watch Here

    Things were going fine last week... until Friday, when it all came completely unraveled.  Friday's 2.45% stumble in the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) was not only the biggest single-day loss since June when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, it carried the market to its lowest close since early-July. Some key support levels were snapped too. Bad news? Maybe, though ironically, the sheer size of Friday's meltdown has a shot at spurring a dead-cat bounce (not unlike the post-Brexit[...]

  • VIX | Education | Sep 12, 2016, 10:00 AM

    Market Volatility Does Live

    Market Volatility Does Live

    With respect to the old Christmas folklore story, 'Yes Virginia, there is Volatility'.  The massive move this past Friday was not telegraphed, but then the first big move down hardly ever is.  Nobody rings a bell at the top, nor at the bottom.  Navigating the markets without the proper instruments becomes a very dicey proposition, and certainly with the right tools there is no guarantee of success, certainly with the timing. For instance, the overbought sentiment has been frothy for[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 10, 2016, 2:17 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/5 - 9/9

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/5 - 9/9

    VXST more than doubled as a function of the index being depressed in front of the three-day weekend and then in reaction to Friday’s SPX sell off.  As would be expected, the rest of the VXST-VIX-VXV-VXMT curve moved higher as well, but outside of VXST relative to VIX we are still in a state of contango. The 2.39% drop in the S&P 500 all came from Friday’s price action as did just about everything else on the table below.  Note that VXX rose 11% and UVXY gained[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 10, 2016, 9:30 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 9/5 - 9/9

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 9/5 - 9/9

    The streak of SPX doldrums came to an end on Friday with the orderly drop of over 50 points for which resulted in VIX rising to 17.50.  Everything worth noting happened on Friday which may have added to the angst that resulted in the S&P 500 closing near the daily lows and VIX closing near the daily highs. Early Friday when VIX was at 13.93 and the big move was just getting started there was a split strike trade that came into the pit.  With the October future at 16.35[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Sep 6, 2016, 9:43 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Two Month Range Continues

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Two Month Range Continues

    Despite a couple of scares, stocks ended last week intact, and even up just a bit thanks to Friday's gain. On the other hand, last week's action still left the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) along with the other indices overvalued and overbought. Whether or not that matters remains to be seen, though it's interesting that the bears had more than ample opportunity to push the market over the cliff -- but they just never did it. All the same, the first full week of the worst month of the year for stocks[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 5, 2016, 8:40 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/29 - 9/2

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/29 - 9/2

    I went to the horse track for the first time in about a decade just before writing this blog.  In one race, a horse (not mine of course) steadily pulled away into the finish of a race.  That’s sort of what is happening with the Russell 2000 (RUT) performance relative to the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI). RUT gained almost twice as much at RUI last week (1.19% versus 0.62%).  This places RUT up 10.21% for 2016 and RUI up only 6.81%. VIX finished the week under[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 4, 2016, 11:40 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/29 - 9/2

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/29 - 9/2

    The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve does what it normally does on a pre three-day weekend week and got steeper.  It’s been a while since I ran the numbers but I’m fairly certain VXST almost always drops before a holiday weekend and then rebounds when we all return to work refreshed and ready to trade. SKEW below 130 was the first thing that stood out to me on the table below.  A quick check and I saw that it had been consistently higher than 130[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Sep 3, 2016, 10:31 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 8/29 - 9/2

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 8/29 - 9/2

    VIX finished the week just under 12.  We can attribute this to a combination of the equity market being pleased by Friday’s August Non-Farm Payroll report along with the three-day weekend effect.  Note the September futures, which settle on the 21st moved lower, but held up a bit relative to spot VIX.  This is common regardless of the directional move out of the index, but is accentuated whenever we have a long weekend. Despite there only being one trading day (and[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Futures | Aug 31, 2016, 4:21 PM

    Sept. 22 Webinar - Institutional Investors and Case Studies on Use of the VIX

    Sept. 22 Webinar - Institutional Investors and Case Studies on Use of the VIX

    On Thursday, September 22 at 2:00 p.m. E.T., S&P Dow Jones Indices and CBOE will co-host a complimentary webinar for financial professionals on the topic of -- How are Institutional Investors Using the VIX®?  Financial professionals who wish to register and see more information are welcome to visit this link -- http://bit.ly/VIX-Sep22. Featured institutional investor speakers will be: (1) John Burkhartzmeyer, State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB); (2) Scott Maidel, CFA, CAIA,[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Aug 30, 2016, 7:45 AM

    See a Profit, Pick it Up

    See a Profit, Pick it Up

    She sells short shares down by the SVXY shore... Or something like that goes the nursery rhyme.  But does she buy calls to go with those shares?  Probably not. Here's why I did it: I wanted a chance to benefit from the SVXY downside I envisioned without worrying excessively about the potential penalty for being significantly unfortunate in my timing/prediction.  So, feeling confident that my dream of SVXY put through the macerator would come true, I decided on a price I'd be willing[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Aug 29, 2016, 11:26 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    Unable to resist the weight of its 9% gain since its late-June low, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) finally started to buckle last week. The index only lost 0.68% for the five-day span, but that was the worst weekly performance since June, and could end up serving as the profit-taking excuse some traders have been waiting for. We'll look at the matter in more detail after a closer look at last week's and this week's economic numbers. They matter more than usual now, with the prospect of rising interest[...]

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