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S&P 500® Prediction Markets

Turn Your S&P 500 Opinion into a Prediction

Deep liquidity. Real price discovery. Cboe prediction markets are built on established exchange infrastructure, delivering efficient execution and prices that reflect the market's collective view. Every trade is transparent and accountable, giving you confidence without the guesswork.

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About Cboe Predicts

Unique Benefits

Powered by Deep Market Liquidity

Exchange-powered liquidity to support your trades

Express Your View on Your Terms

Defined risk. Known maximum. No surprises.

Offered by the Leading U.S. Options Exchange

The transparency and governance traders expect from a regulated exchange.

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Not all prediction markets are created equal. Trade through Cboe's trusted, regulated broker-dealer partners. Your assurance that every transaction meets the highest standards of market integrity.

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What are Prediction Markets

A new way to trade on market outcomes backed by the pioneers of derivatives.

What are they?

Trade the outcome of an event on broker dealer platforms you trust.

How are they different?

No shares to worry about. Choose your directional view of an event. Know that your trade is backed by a leading derivatives exchange.

Who are they for?

Traders who want to express their view on what happens next with trusted execution.

Why trade?

Trade the direction you think the move will occur with price transparency, efficient execution, and exchange-backed oversight.

When to Use S&P 500 Predictions

Practical scenarios where Cboe Prediction Markets offer a clean, defined-risk way to act on your market view.

Prediction Market Liquidity and Why it Matters

How the exchange-listed infrastructure provides reliable liquidity.

How it Works: Ways to Trade

Two main strategies to trade your prediction on XSP® — plus a more advanced approach if you want to fine-tune your cost and payout.

Yes/No

The simplest prediction there is. Will XSP finish above a set number, or won’t it? Pick Yes or No. Get it right and you collect the full payout. Get it wrong and you only lose what you paid — nothing more.

Yes Contract Example:

Investor 1 predicts XSP will finish above 740 today. They buy a Yes contract for $0.40 (x the 100 multiplier) that pays $100 if they’re right — $40 total.

  • Finishes at or above 740: the investor collects $60 profit (the $100 payout minus the $40 paid)
  • Finishes below 740: the investor loses the $40, nothing more
Payoff chart: flat at a $40 loss below 740, jumps to a $60 profit at or above 740

No Contract Example:

Investor 2 predicts XSP will finish at or below 740 today. They buy a No contract for $0.60 (x the 100 multiplier) that pays $100 if they’re right — $60 total.

  • Finishes at or below 740: the investor collects $40 profit (the $100 payout minus the $60 paid)
  • Finishes above 740: the investor loses the $60, nothing more
Payoff chart: $40 profit at or below 740, drops to a $60 loss above 740

Frequently Asked Questions

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