Sign In

S&P 500® Prediction Markets

Turn Your S&P 500 Opinion into a Prediction

Deep liquidity. Real price discovery. Cboe prediction markets are built on established exchange infrastructure, delivering efficient execution and prices that reflect the market's collective view. Every trade is transparent and accountable, giving you confidence without the guesswork.

Quick Links:
FAQ
Education
About Cboe Predicts

Unique Benefits

Powered by Deep Market Liquidity

Exchange-powered liquidity to support your trades

Express Your View on Your Terms

Defined risk. Known maximum. No surprises.

Offered by the Leading U.S. Options Exchange

The transparency and governance traders expect from a regulated exchange.

What are Prediction Markets

A new way to trade on market outcomes backed by the pioneers of derivatives.

What are they?

Trade the outcome of an event on broker dealer platforms you trust.

How are they different?

No shares to worry about. Choose your directional view of an event. Know that your trade is backed by a leading derivatives exchange.

Who are they for?

Traders who want to express their view on what happens next with trusted execution.

Why trade?

Trade the direction you think the move will occur with price transparency, efficient execution, and exchange-backed oversight.

When to Use S&P 500 Predictions

Practical scenarios where Cboe Prediction Markets offer a clean, defined-risk way to act on your market view.

How it Works: Ways to Trade

Yes/No Outcome Trading

Two choices. One result. You're simply deciding if the level will be above or below a set point. If you're right, you receive the full payout. If you're not, you only lose what you paid upfront.

In both examples Investor 1 and Investor 2 paid $0.50 for an XSP® prediction market contract with a $100 payout, for a total cost of $50.

Yes Contract Example:

Investor 1 believes that the S&P 500 will close above $740 today.

  • At or Above 740: Profit $50 (Contract value of $100 minus premium paid upfront of $50)
  • Below 740: Lose $50 (paid upfront)
Yes contract payoff chart showing a $50 loss if the S&P 500 closes below 740 and a $50 profit if it closes at or above 740.

No Contract Example:

Investor 2 believes that the S&P 500 will close below $740 today

  • Below 740: Profit $50 (Contract value of $100 minus premium paid upfront of $50)
  • At or Above 740: Lose $50 (paid upfront)
No contract payoff chart showing a $50 profit if the S&P 500 closes below 740 and a $50 loss if it closes at or above 740.

Stay up to date on education, trading resources and news.

Subscribe for Updates

Stay informed about the latest products and market insights.

*Required Field