Article published at 9:08 a.m. CT
JJ Kinahan is Senior Vice President, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products at Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe).
Key Takeaways:
- Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes come out Wednesday
- CME’s FedWatch tool sees interest rates staying in place
- Big sales days start at Walmart, Amazon and Target this week
There aren’t many catalysts moving the markets in the early going as we await the onset of earnings season. After Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report that helped lift the markets, today’s moves are mixed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.37% while the Nasdaq Composite is gaining 0.51% and the S&P 500 Index is higher by 0.15%. Treasury yields are still in focus with the 10-year at 5.30%. WTI Crude Oil prices are down 1.64% to mid-$89-per-barrel range.
After Friday’s soft jobs report, the CME FedWatch tool is factoring in a 79.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on interest rates at 3.75% to 4.0% when it meets October 28. But we’ll get better insight Wednesday when the central bank releases its minutes from its September meeting when officials unanimously upped interest rates by 25 basis points for the first hike in three years.
Intel shares are under pressure after Elon Musk said Saturday on X (formerly Twitter) that discussions with Intel rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) are underway to work on Musk’s Terafab semiconductor project in Texas. “Just discussions but something may come of it,” Musk commented. He later modified that by saying TSMC would supplement Intel, not replace it. Still Intel shares are down 1.4% and TSMC shares are up 1.6%.
Qualcomm agreed to license Huawei Technologies’ chipmaking patents in a bid that helps validate Huawei’s new semiconductor architecture, seen as a breakthrough in performance, according to Bloomberg. Shares of Qualcomm were off 0.22%. Huawei is a Chinese privately held firm with a testing lab in Plano, Texas.
We’re keeping a watch on this week’s super sales days at Walmart, Amazon and Target. Is October the kickoff to holiday spending? Walmart’s Deal Days start today through Sunday. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days and Target’s Circle Deal Days are Tuesday and Wednesday. Will they pull some holiday spending forward, thereby hurting Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales? Or will they create implemental demand, boosting October year-over-year and fourth-quarter revenues for all three retail giants without much impact to the traditional holiday spend? The discounts at all three are significant, but it’s important to remember that while discounts might drive sales, they also could erode profit margins. Stay tuned.
Happy Trading!
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